Does Decapitation Work for Regime Change?
The U.S. and Israeli decapitation of Iran’s senior political leadership in 2026 failed to produce regime change. The clerical regime and the Revolutionary Guard Corps remain in power. But does this failure mean the strategy of decapitation never has any utility? This essay examines the historical record to identify the conditions under which political decapitation […]
The Countdown Starts Now:
Will 2026 Mark Al-Qaeda’s Strategic Breakthrough in the Sahel?
Will 2026 Mark Al-Qaeda’s Strategic Breakthrough in the Sahel?
On April 26, 2026, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an affiliate of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in coordination with the Azawad Liberation Front, launched a large-scale offensive against government institutions across several regions in Mali, culminating in the assassination of the country’s Minister of Defense. This attack was not an isolated incident. Rather, […]
Achieving a Complete Victory in Iran
The Iran war stands at a pivotal and perilous juncture. What originated as Israel’s preemptive strikes during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 has evolved into a sustained joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that began anew on February 28, 2026. This conflict has decisively altered the balance of power across the Middle East. The Islamic Republic of […]
Did China Really Broker the Iran Ceasefire?
In the aftermath of the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, a striking narrative has taken hold: that China played a decisive role in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table. The claim rests on thin but widely amplified foundations. A remark by President Donald Trump, “I hear yes”, when asked whether Beijing […]
Why America Still Needs Europe
NATO’s leader is offering a hand. President Trump should take it. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s meeting last week with President Donal Trump was perfectly timed. Before that, Trump had been attacking Alliance member states for their refusal to take a greater role in the U.S. and Israel’s war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. […]
Can Iran Really Control the Strait of Hormuz?
On April 7, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, during which the two countries have used Iran’s ten-point peace plan as a starting point for negotiations to end the conflict. One wedge issue in this peace plan is Iran’s demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and establish a $2 million […]
STRATEGIES OF EXISTENTIAL CONFLICT
THE DIALECTICS OF ISRAEL-IRAN WAR
THE DIALECTICS OF ISRAEL-IRAN WAR
As long as Iran remains non-nuclear, an Israel-Iran nuclear exchange is out of the question. Nonetheless, even if Israel is able to maintain its asymmetrical nuclear advantage, a one-sided nuclear war would still be possible. In essence, circumstances could arise in which Israel felt compelled to launch selective portions of its “ambiguous” nuclear arsenal. The […]
Who will be Israel’s Next Nemesis?
Since its inception 78 years ago, Israel has served as a very convenient scapegoat for the authoritarian regimes in its neighborhood. Instead of looking for solutions to the many problems that plague their nations, they found it easier to blame it all on Israel. Using antisemitic practices that have proven themselves over many generations and […]
Oman’s Failed Diplomacy Should be a Wake Up Call for the Sultan
The world needs mediators. As long as war remains a defining feature of humanity, peace deals can try to be reached with the help of third parties who can successfully facilitate communication between belligerents. For many years Oman successfully served as such a mediator and performed valuable services behind the scenes that were well appreciated […]
Why Taiwan Is the Indispensable Island
Since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) returned to power in 2016 under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s national strategy has undergone a profound reorientation. Facing intensified geopolitical pressure from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the DPP government has executed a sophisticated and interconnected strategy focused on four pillars: Diplomatic Resilience, Economic Autonomy, Technological Statecraft, and Whole-of-Society Resilience. This grand […]
The Abraham Accords Go Eurasian
On April 27, Israeli President Isaac Herzog arrives in Astana on a state visit. It highest-level Israeli visit since that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in December 2016 and the first such visit since Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords last November. Much of the commentary on Kazakhstani accession to the Accords greeted it with a […]
How Sanctions Can Cripple Russia’s War Machine
Sanctions against Russia are not foredoomed to failure. If the United States wants sanctions to weaken Russia’s war machine, Washington must stop waiting for existing measures to magically change the Kremlin’s behavior. The Trump administration must start closing loopholes, enforcing restrictions, and targeting the revenue streams that finance the war. For Russia, economic pain does […]
