Can Iran Really Control the Strait of Hormuz?

by May 2026

Matt Reisener, Senior National Security Advisor at the Center for Maritime Strategy and former Senior Program Manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Democratic Institute, offers a clear assessment in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune of the possible consequences of the war with Iran.
He argues that if this regime succeeds in its gamble over the Strait of Hormuz, the balance of power in the Gulf will change.
The reason is clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not only a passage. It is a bargaining chip, a legal test, and a geopolitical fault line.

The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune