Self-Deterrence Will Not Stop the Houthis or Their Iranian Suppliers
Self-deterrence is a defense concept that a state may be restrained from using its military power not by the fear of a counter strike but rather owing to reputational concerns arising from moral, legal or other considerations. This concept may partly explain US reluctance to escalate the current level of military conflict with Iran, though […]
World Energy Markets: <br> Why They Have Barely Responded to Date to the Middle East Conflict
Once upon a time, violent turmoil in the Middle East would spike oil prices, sending the global energy markets and the economies of industrial countries into disarray. This was the case of the 1973 Arab-Israel war, when Middle East oil producers deployed an oil embargo, shifted the balance of market power from buyers to sellers […]
The World in 2024 – Elections and the Demand for American Leadership
Some two billion people, or around one half of the world’s population, will have the opportunity to vote in 2024. No matter the outcome of these elections, 2024 will be a turning point – a time of choosing between democracy and darker outcomes. These elections are taking place against a backdrop of weakening independent institutions in a […]
The Gaza War and East Asia
What can be said about the impact of current developments in the Middle East on East Asia? The most compelling current development is obviously the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which has dominated the headlines for two months and will do so for many more months to come. War arouses strong emotions. […]
Why is It So Difficult for Israel to Decipher Hamas?
As they were marching towards Jerusalem, the knights of the First Crusade lay siege to the city of Antioch in southern Anatolia from October 1097 to June 1098. They were approached there by envoys of the Fatimid dynasty ruling Egypt, who offered the Crusaders a plan to cooperate against the Seljuk state then in possession […]
The Hamas-Iran Relationship
In the weeks since the Hamas massacre on October 7, pundits have debated whether or not Iran helped Hamas develop the plan for the terrorist assault and if Iran had foreknowledge of the attack. Citing a Hamas source, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran helped plot the attack and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard […]
Iran’s “Controlled Insurgency” against the US in Syria and Iraq
In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th and during Israel’s counter-offensive into Gaza, Iranian proxy militias in Iraq and Syria have escalated attacks on US positions in both countries. Fully 60 such attacks have taken place against US forces since October 7. 56 American personnel have suffered injuries in these attacks […]
Latin American Views on the Gaza War Are in Flux
In the days and weeks after the October 7 terrorist attack and Israeli military response, some Latin American nations have distanced themselves politically from Israel. While views of the conflict are evolving, the Latin American public’s reliance on social media for news reports, amid relentlessly negative images of suffering in Gaza, has contributed to widespread […]
The Price of Greatness is Responsibility
Usually, history’s turning points are invisible to the living. Forks in the road are spotted by historians only long after events and their immediate repercussions have faded. But sometimes history visibly shifts for its participants onto a new course. We are now living through one of those turning points in history. 2023 was the year that […]
Reader’s Response: Russia is a Marginal Player in the Gaza War
The article by Stephen Blank of October 25, “Russia’s Role in the Gaza War,” provides much good evidence of Russia’s initial efforts to capitalize on the war for its own purposes. But that article may have overestimated the extent of Russian involvement in and influence over Hamas, Hizbullah and indeed over Iran. The Kremlin aspires […]
